{"id":2579,"date":"2008-04-29T13:15:34","date_gmt":"2008-04-29T13:15:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2579"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:38","slug":"uk-inflation-at-risk-of-extended-overshoot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2579","title":{"rendered":"UK inflation at risk of extended overshoot"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The chart below shows an updated profile for annual consumer price inflation over the next 12 months based on the following assumptions: <\/p>\n<ol type=\"1\">\n<li>Household electricity and gas tariffs are raised by a further 10% over the summer in response to recent steep rises in wholesale energy costs. This would imply a full-year increase of 25%. <\/li>\n<li>Unprocessed food price inflation is stable at its current annual rate of 2.4%.<\/li>\n<li>&ldquo;Core&rdquo; consumer prices &ndash; i.e. excluding unprocessed food and energy &ndash; rise at a 2.25% annual pace for the remainder of 2008, falling to 2.0% during 2009. This is modestly higher than over the last 12 months, reflecting assumed pass-through of large import and raw material cost increases. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>On these assumptions, which do not appear unduly aggressive, headline CPI inflation is projected to be above 3% in every month between July 2008 and January 2009, peaking at 3.5% in September. <\/p>\n<p>If correct, such a profile would raise a large question mark over consensus hopes that the MPC will lower Bank rate steadily over the remainder of 2008.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-float-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 500px; height: 300px\" alt=\"UK_Consumer_Prices_YOY.jpg\" src=\"\/storage\/UK_Consumer_Prices_YOY.jpg\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The chart below shows an updated profile for annual consumer price inflation over the next 12 months based on the following assumptions: Household electricity and gas tariffs are raised by a further 10% over the summer in response to recent steep rises in wholesale energy costs. This would imply a full-year increase of 25%. Unprocessed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2579"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4888,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2579\/revisions\/4888"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}