{"id":2587,"date":"2008-05-14T10:44:59","date_gmt":"2008-05-14T10:44:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2587"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:38","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:38","slug":"latest-boe-inflation-report-piles-on-the-gloom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2587","title":{"rendered":"Latest BoE inflation report piles on the gloom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The May <em>Inflation Report<\/em> is markedly more pessimistic about both inflation and growth than in February and confirms that early further interest rate cuts are off the MPC&rsquo;s agenda: <\/p>\n<ol type=\"1\">\n<li>The central projection based on unchanged rates shows CPI inflation at or above 3% for a year, peaking at 3.7% in the fourth quarter. The fan chart suggests a 30% probability of a peak at or above 4%. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol type=\"1\" start=\"2\">\n<li>The central forecast is on target at the two year horizon assuming unchanged rates, having been significantly below (1.77%) in the February <em>Report<\/em>. Moreover, risks to this forecast are judged to lie on the upside, having been viewed as balanced in February. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol type=\"1\" start=\"3\">\n<li>Annual GDP growth now troughs at 0.9% in the first quarter of 2009 in the central forecast on unchanged rates, compared with a February low of 1.4%. However, a significant rebound is still projected by 2010 &ndash; it is unclear why given reduced prospects of interest rate cuts. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ol type=\"1\" start=\"4\">\n<li>The GDP fan chart suggests a 15% chance of an annual contraction in the first quarter of 2009. This implies a significant probability of two negative GDP quarters over the next year &ndash; perhaps around 30%. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>The one silver lining in the <em>Report<\/em> is that its forecasts are sufficiently pessimistic to create the possibility of favourable economic surprises over coming months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The May Inflation Report is markedly more pessimistic about both inflation and growth than in February and confirms that early further interest rate cuts are off the MPC&rsquo;s agenda: The central projection based on unchanged rates shows CPI inflation at or above 3% for a year, peaking at 3.7% in the fourth quarter. The fan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2587"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4896,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2587\/revisions\/4896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}