Contrary to consensus expectations, the US has held up better than other major economies since the credit crisis erupted last summer.<\/p>\n
The first estimate of US second-quarter GDP is released on Thursday. According to Reuters, economists expect quarterly growth of 2.0% annualised (I think a stronger number is likely). If realised, this would imply a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.<\/p>\n
Available evidence suggests the Eurozone and Japanese economies contracted in the second quarter, partly as pay-back for exaggerated strength in the first three months. Assume optimistically that GDP is unchanged on the quarter in both cases. This would imply year-on-year growth of 1.7% and 2.0% respectively.<\/p>\n
UK second-quarter numbers released on Friday showed year-on-year GDP growth of just 1.6%. <\/p>\n
Stopped-clock pessimists now expect a US recession to start during the second half. They will be right one day but I expect the economy to stay afloat, based on loose policies and low inventories \u2013 likely to have fallen further in the second quarter. Downside risks look much greater in Europe. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Contrary to consensus expectations, the US has held up better than other major economies since the credit crisis erupted last summer. The first estimate of US second-quarter GDP is released on Thursday. According to Reuters, economists expect quarterly growth of 2.0% annualised (I think a stronger number is likely). If realised, this would imply a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2591"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4900,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2591\/revisions\/4900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}