{"id":2610,"date":"2008-06-30T13:13:02","date_gmt":"2008-06-30T13:13:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2610"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:40","slug":"ecb-likely-to-deliver-on-rate-hike-warnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2610","title":{"rendered":"ECB likely to deliver on rate hike warnings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My ECB-ometer model indicates a 55% probability of a 25 bp increase in official rates at this week&rsquo;s meeting. This compares with 30% <a href=\"\/journal\/2008\/5\/30\/ecb-ometer-suggesting-rate-hike-more-likely-than-cut.html\">last month<\/a> and a small probability of a cut as recently as May &ndash; see chart. <\/p>\n<p>The move above the 50% trigger level reflects a further deterioration in inflation indicators together with the hawkish shift in last month&rsquo;s policy statement. Consumer price inflation rose to an annual 4.0% in June. An average of the past and future price balances in the monthly consumer survey reached a record high last month. <\/p>\n<p>The model suggests inflation concerns will just outweigh worrying weakness in activity indicators. The latest purchasing managers&rsquo; surveys are consistent with GDP growth of only about 1% annualised while consumer confidence has slumped to a five-year low. <\/p>\n<p>The 55% reading hints at a significant split on the Governing Council and suggests M. Trichet will play down the possibility of further rises in his press conference remarks. <\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-float-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 500px; height: 300px\" alt=\"ECB_repo_rate_probabilites.jpg\" src=\"\/storage\/ECB_repo_rate_probabilites.jpg\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My ECB-ometer model indicates a 55% probability of a 25 bp increase in official rates at this week&rsquo;s meeting. This compares with 30% last month and a small probability of a cut as recently as May &ndash; see chart. The move above the 50% trigger level reflects a further deterioration in inflation indicators together with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2610"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4919,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2610\/revisions\/4919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}