{"id":2623,"date":"2008-08-06T08:56:28","date_gmt":"2008-08-06T08:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2623"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:40","slug":"ecb-ometer-hinting-at-rate-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2623","title":{"rendered":"ECB-ometer hinting at rate peak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Like its MPC counterpart, my ECB-ometer has shifted in a dovish direction over the last month. The model suggests a 33% probability of a cut in rates at tomorrow\u2019s meeting, compared with a 55% chance of a hike last month \u2013 see chart. <\/p>\n<p>The swing reflects a combination of: very weak business and consumer surveys; slower M3 growth; a fall in short-term bond yields; and the less hawkish policy statement issued after last month\u2019s meeting. These factors have offset a further slight deterioration in inflation indicators. <\/p>\n<p>The model is consistent with a peak in official rates but it will take several more months of data to confirm this scenario.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp; <span class=\"full-image-block\"><span><img decoding=\"async\"  src=\"\/storage\/ECB_repo_rate_and_probabilities.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1218019078945\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Like its MPC counterpart, my ECB-ometer has shifted in a dovish direction over the last month. The model suggests a 33% probability of a cut in rates at tomorrow\u2019s meeting, compared with a 55% chance of a hike last month \u2013 see chart. The swing reflects a combination of: very weak business and consumer surveys; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2623"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4932,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2623\/revisions\/4932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}