{"id":2628,"date":"2008-10-01T09:13:48","date_gmt":"2008-10-01T09:13:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2628"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:40","slug":"ecb-ometer-close-to-rate-cut-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2628","title":{"rendered":"ECB-ometer close to rate cut forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My ECB-ometer model suggests a 37% probability of a rate cut this week, up from 34% last month. See chart. <\/p>\n<p>Assuming no change in the inputs, a reduction before year-end is now viewed as almost certain.<\/p>\n<p>The further move towards easing territory reflects falls in business confidence, inflation expectations, M3 growth, short-term bond yields and stock markets. The main factor holding the model back from predicting a cut this week is the absence to date of any explicit dovish signal from ECB President Trichet.<\/p>\n<p>The statement issued after tomorrow&#8217;s meeting is likely to refer to diminishing upside inflation risks and \/ or increased downside growth risks, giving a clear hint of a move in November or December.<\/p>\n<p>I shall post the MPC-ometer forecast on Monday but initial indications are consistent with my expectation of a rate cut at next week&#8217;s meeting.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block\"><span><img decoding=\"async\"  src=\"\/storage\/ECB-repo-rate-probabilities10-08.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1222854995204\"><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My ECB-ometer model suggests a 37% probability of a rate cut this week, up from 34% last month. See chart. Assuming no change in the inputs, a reduction before year-end is now viewed as almost certain. The further move towards easing territory reflects falls in business confidence, inflation expectations, M3 growth, short-term bond yields and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2628"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4937,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2628\/revisions\/4937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}