{"id":2665,"date":"2008-11-26T14:46:37","date_gmt":"2008-11-26T14:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2665"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:43","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:43","slug":"uk-economy-contracting-sharply-in-late-q3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2665","title":{"rendered":"UK economy contracting sharply in late Q3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Revised third-quarter GDP figures released today confirm a 0.5% quarterly decline. From the expenditure side, a 2.4% fall in capital spending contributed 0.4pp to the GDP drop, with consumer spending, inventories and trade each adding a further 0.1pp. The only positive was a rise in government consumption, contributing 0.2pp.<\/p>\n<p>The extent of the weakness in capital spending was surprising given business investment figures released yesterday, showing a decline of only 0.2%. This suggests a large fall in housing investment, consistent with starts data and anecdotal evidence.<\/p>\n<p>National Statistics also released September figures on services output. This series can be combined with industrial production to create a monthly GDP proxy &ndash; the two sectors account for 93% of gross value added. The chart below shows quarterly GDP with this monthly indicator.<\/p>\n<p>The July reading of the monthly series was equal to the second-quarter average. The quarterly GDP decline reflected marked weakness in August and September, partly due to the escalating financial crisis. Monthly output fell by 0.8% in August and September combined.<\/p>\n<p>The late-quarter deterioration implies a negative carry-over into the fourth quarter &ndash; September output was 0.3% below the third-quarter average. Together with recent very weak business surveys, this suggests a GDP decline of more than 0.5% in the current quarter.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/UK-GDPvsMonthly-services-1108.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1227711558524\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Revised third-quarter GDP figures released today confirm a 0.5% quarterly decline. From the expenditure side, a 2.4% fall in capital spending contributed 0.4pp to the GDP drop, with consumer spending, inventories and trade each adding a further 0.1pp. The only positive was a rise in government consumption, contributing 0.2pp. The extent of the weakness in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2665"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2665\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4974,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2665\/revisions\/4974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}