One of my themes this year has been that the US economy would outperform Europe.<\/p>\n
Between the fourth and second quarters, US GDP rose by an annualised 1.8% versus 1.0% in the Eurozone and 0.6% in the UK.<\/p>\n
Preliminary third-quarter US figures released yesterday show a 0.3% annualised decline but the UK fall was much larger, at 2.1%. Coming Eurozone numbers look set to show a performance closer to the UK than US.<\/p>\n
The US figures were depressed by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike and a strike at Boeing. The Federal Reserve estimated these factors depressed industrial production by 2.75% in September, implying a 0.9% impact on the third-quarter average, or 3.6% annualised. Industrial production accounts for 16% of GDP so this will have cut annualised GDP growth by 0.6%. This ignores effects on other sectors. In other words, the preliminary third-quarter growth estimate would have been slightly positive without the disruptions.<\/p>\n
US GDP will decline in the fourth quarter but I still think prospects are worse in Europe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
One of my themes this year has been that the US economy would outperform Europe. Between the fourth and second quarters, US GDP rose by an annualised 1.8% versus 1.0% in the Eurozone and 0.6% in the UK. Preliminary third-quarter US figures released yesterday show a 0.3% annualised decline but the UK fall was much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2678"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4987,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2678\/revisions\/4987"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}