{"id":2730,"date":"2009-01-29T10:03:17","date_gmt":"2009-01-29T10:03:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2730"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:47","slug":"imf-forecast-implies-uk-recession-nearly-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2730","title":{"rendered":"IMF forecast implies UK recession nearly over!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The IMF&rsquo;s new <a title=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/weo\/2009\/update\/01\/index.htm\" href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/weo\/2009\/update\/01\/index.htm\" target=\"_blank\">forecasts<\/a> show UK GDP declining by 2.8% in 2009 versus an average fall in advanced economies of 2.0%. The UK&rsquo;s performance is projected to be the worst of the Group of Seven (G7) major economies.<\/p>\n<p>This forecast, however, is more a reflection of recent developments than a view that the UK will underperform going forward. UK GDP and output figures published last week imply that monthly GDP in December was 1.0% below the fourth-quarter level and 2.4% lower than the calendar 2008 average &ndash; see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2009\/1\/23\/high-street-insulation-from-economic-woes-unlikely-to-last.html\">here<\/a>. So the IMF forecast for 2009 implies a further decline in GDP from December of only 0.4%.<\/p>\n<p>The UK is the only G7 country yet to have published fourth-quarter GDP numbers. Performance in other major nations is likely to be similarly dire or even worse, in which case IMF projections may need to be revised down.<\/p>\n<p>After the UK, Japan and Germany are forecast to suffer the largest GDP declines in 2009, of 2.6% and 2.5% respectively, reflecting their exposure to collapsing world trade. Countries that &ldquo;fixed the roof&rdquo; in good times &ndash; running savings surpluses and avoiding domestic credit \/ housing booms &ndash; are suffering at least as much as deficit offenders in the current global downturn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IMF&rsquo;s new forecasts show UK GDP declining by 2.8% in 2009 versus an average fall in advanced economies of 2.0%. The UK&rsquo;s performance is projected to be the worst of the Group of Seven (G7) major economies. This forecast, however, is more a reflection of recent developments than a view that the UK will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2730","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2730"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2730\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5039,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2730\/revisions\/5039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}