{"id":2762,"date":"2009-03-31T10:52:19","date_gmt":"2009-03-31T10:52:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2762"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:48","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:48","slug":"uk-gdp-still-slumping-in-early-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2762","title":{"rendered":"UK GDP still slumping in early 2009"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Services sector output data released today confirm that the economy continued to contract rapidly in early 2009. A monthly GDP estimate based on services and industrial output fell a further 0.6% in January, to stand 1.4% below its fourth-quarter average &ndash; see first chart. Monthly GDP has now declined by 4.2% from its peak last April.<\/p>\n<p>The January result suggests GDP will fall by more in the first quarter than implied by the central projection in the Bank of England&rsquo;s February <em>Inflation Report<\/em> &ndash; second chart. <\/p>\n<p>The GDP decline should slow as the recent big drag from destocking abates. More promising monetary trends, if sustained, warrant hopes of a recovery in GDP from late 2009, though probably from a significantly lower level than implied by the Bank of England&rsquo;s central projection.<\/p>\n<p>The current recession could yet prove less severe than the catastrophic 1979-81 downturn. GDP would have to fall a further 2.4% from its estimated January level to match the quarterly peak-to-trough decline in the early 1980s.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/UK-GDP-quarter-est-0309.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1238497494416\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/UK-GDPvsBOE-forecast-0309.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1238497510163\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Services sector output data released today confirm that the economy continued to contract rapidly in early 2009. A monthly GDP estimate based on services and industrial output fell a further 0.6% in January, to stand 1.4% below its fourth-quarter average &ndash; see first chart. Monthly GDP has now declined by 4.2% from its peak last [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2762"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2762\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5071,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2762\/revisions\/5071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}