{"id":2801,"date":"2009-05-29T14:08:14","date_gmt":"2009-05-29T14:08:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2801"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:50","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:50","slug":"did-g7-output-bottom-in-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2801","title":{"rendered":"Did G7 output bottom in March?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Two Group of Seven (G7) countries have released April industrial output figures: the US registered a 0.5% decline and Japan a 5.2% gain &ndash; see first chart. The Japanese rise dominates and suggests a small increase in G7-wide output in April barring significant weakness in European data due in a fortnight&#8217;s time.<\/p>\n<p>G7 output peaked in February 2008. A bottom in March 2009 would imply a 13-month recession, similar to the duration of the 1974-75 and 2000-01 downturns (12 and 11 months respectively) &ndash; second chart. The recent fall, of course, has been much larger, with a 19% peak-to-trough drop versus 12% in 1974-75 and 7% in 2000-01.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2008\/12\/10\/g7-output-falling-fast-bottom-possible-in-early-2009.html\">post<\/a> last December predicted a G7 output bottom in March based on a pick-up in inflation-adjusted narrow money M1. Real M1 is showing very strong annual growth, supporting near-term economic recovery hopes &ndash; third chart. It has, however, slowed over the last three months &ndash; further weakness could signal a loss of economic momentum in late 2009.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/major-countries-ind-output-290509.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1243607723601\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/G7-industrial-output-290509.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1243607755241\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/G7-industrial-RMS-290509.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1243607768256\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two Group of Seven (G7) countries have released April industrial output figures: the US registered a 0.5% decline and Japan a 5.2% gain &ndash; see first chart. The Japanese rise dominates and suggests a small increase in G7-wide output in April barring significant weakness in European data due in a fortnight&#8217;s time. G7 output peaked [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2801","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2801"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2801\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5110,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2801\/revisions\/5110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2801"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2801"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2801"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}