{"id":2922,"date":"2010-01-07T10:06:57","date_gmt":"2010-01-07T10:06:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2922"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:48:57","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:48:57","slug":"uk-december-shop-prices-ominous-for-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2922","title":{"rendered":"UK December shop prices ominous for CPI"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The annual increase in the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index &ndash; a measure of goods price inflation &ndash; jumped by two percentage points to 2.2% in December. The BRC index is a narrower measure than the official consumer price index for goods but this increase bodes ill for the December CPI report to be released on 19 January.<\/p>\n<p>The chart compares the BRC indices for food and non-food goods with roughly-comparable CPI definitions. BRC food inflation tracks the CPI measure reasonably closely and climbed from an annual 2.8% to 3.7% in December. This represents an unfavourable surprise since the increase cannot be explained by the VAT effect &ndash; most food items are not VAT-able.<\/p>\n<p>The annual change in the BRC non-food index rose from -1.2% to 1.4% in December, largely reversing a 2.8 percentage point decline in December 2008 due to the VAT cut. The annual change in the CPI for &#8220;non-energy industrial goods&#8221; fell by 2.2 percentage points in December 2008; a similar reversal would imply a rise from 1.3% to more than 3% last month.<\/p>\n<p>Overall CPI inflation, including services as well as goods prices, fell from an annual 4.1% to 3.1% in December 2008. Higher BRC food inflation, the jump in the non-food measure and an unfavourable petrol price base effect suggest a similar-sized increase in December 2009. The forecast in an earlier <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2009\/12\/15\/uk-core-inflation-up-again-despite-output-gap.html\">post<\/a> of a rise in annual CPI inflation from 1.9% in November to 2.6-2.7% last month may prove conservative.<span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/uk-consp-070110-1.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1262862876141\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The annual increase in the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index &ndash; a measure of goods price inflation &ndash; jumped by two percentage points to 2.2% in December. The BRC index is a narrower measure than the official consumer price index for goods but this increase bodes ill for the December CPI report to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2922"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5231,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2922\/revisions\/5231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}