{"id":2954,"date":"2010-03-10T10:40:51","date_gmt":"2010-03-10T10:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2954"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:00","slug":"promising-labour-market-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2954","title":{"rendered":"Promising labour market indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The view expressed in prior posts that the global economic recovery will be sustained through 2010 rests on improvements in corporate liquidity feeding through to a pick-up in business investment and hiring, with rising employment supporting consumer incomes and spending. Recent US and UK evidence is consistent with firming labour demand.<\/p>\n<p>In the US, non-farm payrolls fell by 171,000 in the three months to February but last month&#8217;s number was depressed by snow storms that prevented some existing employees and new hires from turning up for work. An alternative payrolls measure based on households&#8217; assessment of their employment status is likely to have been less distorted by weather effects and rose by 292,000 over the last three months &ndash; see first chart. A catch-up gain in headline payrolls is possible this month.<\/p>\n<p>Leading indicators have improved further: a measure based on the ISM manufacturing employment index, the NFIB small firm hiring plans index and the Challenger-Gray-Christmas lay-offs tally has risen to a level historically consistent with three-month payrolls growth of between 250,000 and 500,000 &ndash; second chart.<\/p>\n<p>In the UK, job vacancies rose by a surprisingly-strong 11% in the three months to January from the prior three months, a pick-up confirmed by the Market jobs survey &ndash; third chart. Vacancies correlate with GDP so this suggests that underlying economic momentum, abstracting from weather effects, strengthened around year-end &ndash; final chart.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/1-us-non-farm-100310.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1268218274159\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/2-us-non-farm-100310.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1268218291237\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/3-uk-vac-mark-100310.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1268218308940\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/4-uk-gdp-job-100310.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1268218326237\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The view expressed in prior posts that the global economic recovery will be sustained through 2010 rests on improvements in corporate liquidity feeding through to a pick-up in business investment and hiring, with rising employment supporting consumer incomes and spending. Recent US and UK evidence is consistent with firming labour demand. In the US, non-farm [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2954"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2954\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5263,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2954\/revisions\/5263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}