{"id":2979,"date":"2010-04-01T10:31:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-01T10:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2979"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:02","slug":"uk-credit-survey-signals-stronger-housing-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=2979","title":{"rendered":"UK credit survey signals stronger housing demand"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Housing market bears recently encouraged by a fall in mortgage approvals and slower price gains may have to retreat to the woods, judging from the Bank of England&#8217;s first-quarter <a title=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/other\/monetary\/creditconditionssurvey100401.pdf\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/other\/monetary\/creditconditionssurvey100401.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Credit Conditions Survey<\/a>. The net percentage of banks expecting stronger demand for mortgages to finance house purchases rose to +40 &ndash; the highest in the survey&#8217;s three-year history and up from +3 in the fourth quarter of last year and a low of -40 in the second quarter of 2008. Softer indicators in early 2010 appear to have reflected bad weather and the temporary impact of the ending of the previous stamp duty holiday.<\/p>\n<p>A majority of banks also expects a rise in demand for unsecured consumer loans and corporate credit &ndash; see first chart.<\/p>\n<p>Credit supply, meanwhile, should improve, with the net percentages expecting greater availability of corporate, mortgage and unsecured consumer loans all positive, the latter for the first time since 2007 &ndash; second chart.<\/p>\n<p>A previous <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/1\/18\/will-uk-house-prices-continue-to-recover.html\">post<\/a> suggested that the recovery in house prices would follow the pattern of the early 1980s, a possibility also <a title=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/speeches\/2010\/speech421.pdf\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/speeches\/2010\/speech421.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">mooted<\/a> by MPC member Andrew Sentance. Inflation-adjusted prices have actually moved ahead of the 1980s path recently &ndash; third chart. The bears&#8217; assumption that restricted credit supply would offset the stimulus of low interest rates &ndash; supplemented now by an extension of the stamp duty holiday up to a higher threshold &ndash; looks increasingly questionable. Higher official rates may be needed to head off an overexuberant housing market.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/uk-boe-lending010410.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1270133177252\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/uk-boe-lending-2-010410.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1270133192077\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/uk-real-house-010410.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1270119138456\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Housing market bears recently encouraged by a fall in mortgage approvals and slower price gains may have to retreat to the woods, judging from the Bank of England&#8217;s first-quarter Credit Conditions Survey. The net percentage of banks expecting stronger demand for mortgages to finance house purchases rose to +40 &ndash; the highest in the survey&#8217;s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2979"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2979\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5288,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2979\/revisions\/5288"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}