{"id":3023,"date":"2010-08-19T16:13:19","date_gmt":"2010-08-19T16:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3023"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:04","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:04","slug":"us-business-surveys-weaken-on-schedule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3023","title":{"rendered":"US business surveys weaken on schedule"},"content":{"rendered":"

Posts earlier in the year argued that global economic momentum would fade in the second half in lagged response to narrow money supply weakness in late 2009 and early 2010. A slowdown would also be consistent with the typical cyclical pattern, involving strong stocks-led growth in the first year of a recovery followed by a “resting phase” before a sustained upswing driven by final demand.<\/p>\n

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing new orders index is a useful summary measure of global industrial momentum. A chart presented in a post<\/a> in June suggested that this index, then at a recovery peak of 66, would fall back to the break-even 50 level over the summer. An update is provided in the first chart below – ISM new orders dropped to 53 in July and this week’s regional manufacturing surveys by the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks suggest a further decline in August.<\/p>\n

If the index continues to follow the “five-cycle average”, it may stabilise at around the 50 level before restrengthening in early 2011. It would need to fall to 45 or below to signal a recession. Sub-45 readings have historically been preceded by a significant contraction in US real narrow money but this has expanded recently – second chart. A further indication that the ISM measure may be approaching a trough is a small rise this month in the Philadephia Fed future orders index (in contrast to the decline its current orders measure) – third chart.<\/p>\n

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Posts earlier in the year argued that global economic momentum would fade in the second half in lagged response to narrow money supply weakness in late 2009 and early 2010. A slowdown would also be consistent with the typical cyclical pattern, involving strong stocks-led growth in the first year of a recovery followed by a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3023"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5332,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3023\/revisions\/5332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}