{"id":3030,"date":"2010-09-07T13:03:47","date_gmt":"2010-09-07T13:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3030"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:05","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:05","slug":"money-pick-up-suggests-autumn-trough-in-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3030","title":{"rendered":"Money pick-up suggests autumn trough in leading indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"

The six-month growth rate of G7 industrial output is falling sharply, as previously signalled by the OECD’s composite leading indicators index and, much earlier, G7 real narrow money, M1 – see chart.<\/p>\n

The six-month change in real M1, however, bottomed in January and had recovered to a nine-month high by July, suggesting that economic weakness should abate by the end of 2010.<\/p>\n

In terms of six-month rates of change, real M1 led industrial output by 11 months both at the recession trough and the recent momentum peak. If the same lead-time applies from the January real M1 trough, the six-month change in industrial output should bottom in December. (The average lead historically has been shorter, so an earlier turnaround is possible.)<\/p>\n

The OECD leading index turned only two months before industrial output at the recession trough and by three months at the recent growth peak. A December bottom in industrial output momentum, therefore, could be presaged by a trough in the leading index in September or October.<\/p>\n

The OECD leading index is widely monitored by market participants, with a July reading due on 13 September. The above analysis suggests that this number, and possibly also figures for August and September, will be weak.<\/p>\n

The view here remains that a “double dip” will be avoided but markets are likely to have to negotiate more downbeat economic data over coming weeks.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The six-month growth rate of G7 industrial output is falling sharply, as previously signalled by the OECD’s composite leading indicators index and, much earlier, G7 real narrow money, M1 – see chart. The six-month change in real M1, however, bottomed in January and had recovered to a nine-month high by July, suggesting that economic weakness […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3030"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5339,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3030\/revisions\/5339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}