{"id":3036,"date":"2010-09-19T22:23:22","date_gmt":"2010-09-19T22:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3036"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:05","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:05","slug":"global-industrial-recovery-still-following-1970s-template","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3036","title":{"rendered":"Global industrial recovery still following 1970s template"},"content":{"rendered":"

Combined industrial output in the G7 and seven large emerging economies (the “E7”) moved above its pre-recession peak in July – see first chart. US and Chinese data suggest a further gain in August. Output fell by 14% between February 2008 and February 2009 and it has taken 17 months to recapture the loss – not quite a V-shaped recovery but close.<\/p>\n

The heavy lifting, of course, has been performed by emerging economies, with the E7 contributing 9 percentage points of the 16% recovery in combined output from the February 2009 low – second chart. E7 output is 15% above its pre-recession peak and 1% higher than its log-linear trend since 2000 – a positive “output gap” is reflected in rising domestic inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

G7 plus E7 industrial output continues to track the path of G7 production during the mid 1970s recession and subsequent recovery – see previous post<\/a> and third chart. (G7 output was a good proxy for global activity in the 1970s, when the E7 were much smaller and \/ or locked out of world trade.) This comparison suggests a significant near-term slowdown in growth but no “double dip” – a scenario consistent with recent monetary trends.<\/p>\n

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—–
\nCOMMENT:
\nAUTHOR: Curious Reader
\nEMAIL:
\nIP: 96.246.69.207
\nURL:
\nDATE: 09\/19\/2010 10:23:22 PM<\/p>\n

Please can you explain why you think the 1970s is the appropriate historical comparison?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Combined industrial output in the G7 and seven large emerging economies (the “E7”) moved above its pre-recession peak in July – see first chart. US and Chinese data suggest a further gain in August. Output fell by 14% between February 2008 and February 2009 and it has taken 17 months to recapture the loss – not […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3036"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3036\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5345,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3036\/revisions\/5345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}