{"id":3057,"date":"2010-09-03T13:56:47","date_gmt":"2010-09-03T13:56:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3057"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:06","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:06","slug":"little-news-in-us-employment-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3057","title":{"rendered":"Little news in US employment report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Markets pay undue attention to the monthly US payroll numbers, which are at best a coincident economic indicator and are often revised heavily.<\/p>\n<p>The latest figures show a rise in private sector employment of 235,000 in the three months to August, down from 450,000 in the prior three months. Such a slowdown was to be expected given a fall in GDP growth from 3.7% annualised in the first quarter to 1.6% in the second.<\/p>\n<p>Commentators were relieved that private jobs continued to increase in August, by 67,000, with some having feared a contraction, signalling the dreaded &#8220;double dip&#8221;. In fact, such an increase is perfectly compatible with the economy having entered a recession last month, allowing for lags and the usual margin of error. The news content of today&#8217;s release, therefore, is minimal.<\/p>\n<p>Monetary trends, unlike labour market developments, lead demand and output, typically by about six months. A firmer reason for optimism that the economy will avoid a double dip is a recent stabilisation and pick-up in real M1 growth &ndash; see first chart.<\/p>\n<p>In other news today, the UK purchasing managers&#8217; services survey for August confirmed the message of slowdown delivered by the earlier manufacturing survey. A weighted average of the new orders \/ business indices from the surveys suggests a fall in GDP growth to about 0.5% in the current quarter from a break-neck 1.2% in the second quarter &ndash; second chart. This is hardly&nbsp;grounds for MPC doves to&nbsp;push the &#8220;panic&#8221; button, particularly as survey inflation indicators remain elevated.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/us-ind-output030910.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1283525286593\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/uk-gdp-purchasing030910.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1283525310749\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets pay undue attention to the monthly US payroll numbers, which are at best a coincident economic indicator and are often revised heavily. The latest figures show a rise in private sector employment of 235,000 in the three months to August, down from 450,000 in the prior three months. Such a slowdown was to be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3057"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5366,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3057\/revisions\/5366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}