{"id":3062,"date":"2010-09-13T12:51:08","date_gmt":"2010-09-13T12:51:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3062"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:06","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:06","slug":"g7-leading-index-fall-still-consistent-with-soft-patch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3062","title":{"rendered":"G7 leading index fall still consistent with &#8220;soft patch&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The OECD&#8217;s G7 leading indicator index fell by a further 0.4% in July, resulting in the six-month rate of change turning negative &ndash; see first chart. The index suggests that industrial output will flat-line or weaken into late 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Based on an earlier slowdown in G7 real narrow money, M1, the OECD measure may decline further in August and September &ndash; see previous <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/9\/7\/money-pick-up-suggests-autumn-trough-in-leading-indicators.html\">post<\/a>. Recent M1 reacceleration, however, may presage a trough in the leading index this autumn, in turn implying that the recovery in industrial output will resume by early 2011.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast to the G7 measure, a leading index covering seven large emerging economies (the &#8220;E7&#8221;) rose by 0.4% in July. The six-month change slowed further but remains consistent with respectable output expansion &ndash; second chart.<\/p>\n<p>While the G7 index registered a larger monthly fall in July, E7 monthly momentum seems to be stabilising &ndash; third chart. This could be significant since the E7 change led that of the G7 by a month at the trough of the recession and by two months at the 2009 growth peak. Stabilising E7 monthly momentum, in other words, could be a precursor of a slower decline in the G7 index, consistent with the autumn trough suggested by monetary trends.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart1_13-09-2010.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1284383043831\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart2_13-09-2010.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1284383354071\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart3_13-09-2010.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1284383371424\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The OECD&#8217;s G7 leading indicator index fell by a further 0.4% in July, resulting in the six-month rate of change turning negative &ndash; see first chart. The index suggests that industrial output will flat-line or weaken into late 2010. Based on an earlier slowdown in G7 real narrow money, M1, the OECD measure may decline [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3062"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5371,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062\/revisions\/5371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}