{"id":3066,"date":"2010-09-20T14:31:59","date_gmt":"2010-09-20T14:31:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3066"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:06","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:06","slug":"us-stocks-reconverge-with-six-bear-average","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3066","title":{"rendered":"US stocks reconverge with &#8220;six-bear average&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Following its recent rally, the Dow Industrials index stands only 2% below the &#8220;six-bear average&#8221; path discussed in previous posts, based on recoveries after previous large US stock market declines &ndash; see chart.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/5\/19\/us-stocks-converge-with-six-bear-average.html\">post<\/a> in May speculated that tighter global liquidity would push the Dow, then trading in line with the average, into the lower half of the six-bear range, thereby presenting a buying opportunity. At the trough in early July, the index was 10% below the six-bear mean and only 1% above the bottom of the historical range.<\/p>\n<p>Liquidity indicators have <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/9\/1\/is-global-liquidity-starting-to-improve.html\">improved<\/a> at the margin but have yet to turn positive,&nbsp;suggesting that the Dow&nbsp;will struggle to move above the six-bear average. G7 real M1 expansion is still well below industrial output growth in year-over-year terms but is close to converging on a six-month basis. The G7 monetary base has been moving sideways after falls in the spring and summer, with an increase possible if the Federal Reserve embarks on &#8220;QE2&#8221; and \/ or the Japanese authorities conduct further unsterilised currency intervention.<\/p>\n<p>The six-bear average moves gradually higher over the remainder of 2010, finishing the year 6% above the Dow&#8217;s closing level on Friday.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/dow-ind-200910.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1284994159439\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following its recent rally, the Dow Industrials index stands only 2% below the &#8220;six-bear average&#8221; path discussed in previous posts, based on recoveries after previous large US stock market declines &ndash; see chart. A post in May speculated that tighter global liquidity would push the Dow, then trading in line with the average, into the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3066"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5375,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3066\/revisions\/5375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}