{"id":3103,"date":"2010-11-03T17:24:04","date_gmt":"2010-11-03T17:24:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3103"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:09","slug":"uk-inflation-about-to-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3103","title":{"rendered":"UK inflation about to surge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Recent news supports the earlier <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/10\/12\/uk-inflation-calm-before-the-storm.html\">forecast<\/a> of a rise in CPI inflation to about 4% by early 2011, from 3.1% in September. October figures, released on 16 November, may increase to 3.3-3.4%.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>BRC shop price inflation moved up by 0.4 percentage points between September and October. The BRC survey covers non-energy goods, which constitute about 46% of the CPI. <em>Impact on headline CPI rate: +0.2 percentage points between September and October.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Higher petrol \/ diesel prices in October versus little change a year before should push motor fuel inflation up from 9.3% in September to about 12%. <em>Impact: +0.1 percentage points in October.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Commodity price pass-through should result in CPI food inflation rising to at least 7% versus 4.9% in September. <em>Impact: further +0.2 percentage points by early 2011.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Bank of England survey evidence points to much higher pass-through of the coming VAT hike to 20% than for this year&#8217;s return to 17.5%. <em>Impact: up to +0.6 percentage points by early 2011.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>The rise in gas tariffs announced by Scottish and Southern, if followed by other suppliers, will push the CPI gas change up from an annual -5.7% to 3% by January and 9% by April. <em>Impact: +0.4 percentage points by April 2011.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The CPI profile shown in the chart below superimposes these factors on a stable underlying inflation rate of 2.25-2.5%. It suggests an average CPI rise of 3.9% in 2011, with inflation at or above the 3.1% letter-writing level throughout the year.\ufeff<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/uk-consumer-prices041110.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1288861911705\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recent news supports the earlier forecast of a rise in CPI inflation to about 4% by early 2011, from 3.1% in September. October figures, released on 16 November, may increase to 3.3-3.4%. BRC shop price inflation moved up by 0.4 percentage points between September and October. The BRC survey covers non-energy goods, which constitute about [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3103"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3103\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5412,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3103\/revisions\/5412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}