{"id":3117,"date":"2010-11-24T11:31:55","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T11:31:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3117"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:09","slug":"uk-consumer-inflation-at-4-9-according-to-national-accounts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3117","title":{"rendered":"UK consumer inflation at 4.9%, according to national accounts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Revised figures confirm that GDP grew by 0.8% in the third quarter, with additional detail suggesting a further healthy gain in the current quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Industrial production and services output both rose by 0.6% last quarter, with the increase in overall GDP boosted to 0.8% by a 4.0% rise in construction.<\/p>\n<p>A monthly GDP estimate based on industry and services data stood 0.5% above its third-quarter average in September, implying significant positive carry-over into the current quarter &ndash; see chart. With further growth likely in these sectors, GDP should rise by at least 0.4% this quarter even if construction reverses its third-quarter increase.<\/p>\n<p>The expenditure breakdown shows a surprise 0.4 percentage point contribution to GDP growth from net exports &ndash; this had not been suggested by monthly trade figures. It would be premature to infer that the economy is finally &#8220;rebalancing&#8221; in response to the lower exchange rate, since the improvement follows four successive quarters of deterioration.<\/p>\n<p>Household spending rose by only 0.3%, reflecting an inflation squeeze on real employee compensation, while business investment fell by 0.2%. The latter, however, is at odds with encouraging survey evidence on capital spending and early estimates have been consistently revised higher in recent quarters.<\/p>\n<p>Stockbuilding was modest, at 0.1% of GDP. Inventory levels remain much lower than before the recession, suggesting scope for a further rebuild that will contribute to future growth.<\/p>\n<p>The price deflator for household spending &ndash; the broadest measure of consumer inflation &ndash; rose by 4.9% in the year to the third quarter, above both CPI inflation of 3.1% and a 4.7% gain in the RPI excluding mortgage interest payments. (The CPI understates inflation because it excludes some housing costs and uses geometric averaging to combine prices of individual items.)<\/p>\n<p>Nominal or current-price GDP rose by 5.9% in the year to the third quarter. Growth needs to be constrained to about 4.5% per annum over the medium term to be consistent with the inflation target.\ufeff<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart1_24-11-2010.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1290598994380\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Revised figures confirm that GDP grew by 0.8% in the third quarter, with additional detail suggesting a further healthy gain in the current quarter. Industrial production and services output both rose by 0.6% last quarter, with the increase in overall GDP boosted to 0.8% by a 4.0% rise in construction. A monthly GDP estimate based [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3117"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3117\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5426,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3117\/revisions\/5426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}