{"id":3134,"date":"2011-02-17T12:38:14","date_gmt":"2011-02-17T12:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3134"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:10","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:10","slug":"march-uk-rate-hike-still-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3134","title":{"rendered":"March UK rate hike still possible"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In his most hawkish <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/publications\/speeches\/2011\/speech472.pdf\">speech<\/a> to date, the MPC&#8217;s Andrew Sentance dissociates himself from the medium-term inflation forecast in the February <em>Inflation Report<\/em> (which itself seems to call for an early rate rise &ndash; see previous post) while arguing that the Committee&#8217;s failure to tighten policy earlier will mean bigger and sharper interest rate rises, with attendant risks to recovery prospects. The speech suggests that Dr Sentance voted for a half-point Bank rate hike at last week&#8217;s meeting.<\/p>\n<p>The previously-discussed &#8220;MPC-ometer&#8221; model, meanwhile, is currently signalling a 70% probability of a quarter-point increase in March but could change significantly depending on the February MPC vote, fourth-quarter GDP revision and consumer \/ purchasing managers survey results for February. A contributor to the hawkish reading is a further increase in the net percentage of CBI industrial firms planning to raise prices in February (released today), suggesting that CPI goods inflation will rise from 3.8% in January to about 5% &ndash; see chart.\ufeff<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/storage\/graphs\/ukgoods170210.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1297947216826\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In his most hawkish speech to date, the MPC&#8217;s Andrew Sentance dissociates himself from the medium-term inflation forecast in the February Inflation Report (which itself seems to call for an early rate rise &ndash; see previous post) while arguing that the Committee&#8217;s failure to tighten policy earlier will mean bigger and sharper interest rate rises, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3134"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3134\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5443,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3134\/revisions\/5443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}