{"id":3142,"date":"2011-01-11T14:52:07","date_gmt":"2011-01-11T14:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3142"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:11","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:11","slug":"emu-periphery-lead-indicators-still-weakening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3142","title":{"rendered":"EMU-periphery lead indicators still weakening"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The OECD&#8217;s leading indicator indices for <a title=\"http:\/\/www.oecd.org\/document\/33\/0,3746,en_2649_34249_46846049_1_1_1_1,00.html\" href=\"http:\/\/www.oecd.org\/document\/33\/0,3746,en_2649_34249_46846049_1_1_1_1,00.html\" target=\"_blank\">November<\/a> signal a short-term upswing in global industrial momentum, validating a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/7\/19\/friedman-rules-ok.html\">forecast<\/a> made last July on the basis of monetary developments. The improvement, however, does not extend to the beleaguered EMU-periphery.<\/p>\n<p>The chart shows six-month changes in combined industrial output and a leading index for the group (i.e. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland) together with a &#8220;leading indicator of the leading index&#8221;, which heralds turning points. The six-month decline in the index accelerated further in November and the double-lead indicator has yet to signal a bottom.<\/p>\n<p>This weakness is consistent with an ongoing contraction of real narrow money discussed in a previous <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2010\/12\/29\/eurozone-m1-weakness-suggesting-core-slowdown-peripheral-rec.html\">post<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>These developments suggest that the recent fall in EMU-periphery industrial output will gather pace in early 2011. Economic weakness is likely to undermine fiscal consolidation plans, in turn ensuring that the sovereign debt crisis rumbles on.\ufeff<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart1_11-01-2011.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1294759051776\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The OECD&#8217;s leading indicator indices for November signal a short-term upswing in global industrial momentum, validating a forecast made last July on the basis of monetary developments. The improvement, however, does not extend to the beleaguered EMU-periphery. The chart shows six-month changes in combined industrial output and a leading index for the group (i.e. Italy, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3142"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5451,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3142\/revisions\/5451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}