{"id":3157,"date":"2011-02-07T14:58:34","date_gmt":"2011-02-07T14:58:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3157"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:49:11","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:49:11","slug":"us-corporate-credit-demand-reviving-as-animal-spirits-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=3157","title":{"rendered":"US corporate credit demand reviving as &#8220;animal spirits&#8221; return"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US capital goods manufacturers are increasingly bullish about their domestic sales prospects, according to a <a title=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/d4a1641a-322e-11e0-a820-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1DHkvzp5b\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/d4a1641a-322e-11e0-a820-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1DHkvzp5b\" target=\"_blank\">report<\/a> in today&#8217;s <em>Financial Times<\/em>. This accords with the ISM&#8217;s December semi-annual investment intentions survey, indicating that manufacturing firms planned a 15% increase in capital spending in 2011, the largest since 1998 &ndash; see first chart.<\/p>\n<p>Labour demand typically follows investment. January&#8217;s jobs gain was depressed by bad weather but business surveys suggest that private payrolls expansion should strengthen significantly &ndash; second chart. Online job advertisements surged in January, as noted in a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2011\/1\/31\/us-labour-demand-improving.html\">post<\/a> last week.<\/p>\n<p>A return of corporate &#8220;animal spirits&#8221; is also evidenced by a recent revival in bank credit demand. Commercial and industrial loans are still down by 5% from a year ago but have risen since the autumn, with the Federal Reserve&#8217;s latest senior lending officer survey pointing to a further pick-up &ndash; third chart.<\/p>\n<p>Rising corporate credit needs are clashing with a widening federal deficit, contributing to upward pressure on bond yields, despite the Fed&#8217;s QE2 programme. (The Congressional Budget Office projects a rise in the deficit to 9.8% of GDP in fiscal 2011 from 8.9% last year.) A resumption of C&amp;I loan growth in 1994 coincided with a severe Treasury bear market &ndash; the final chart draws an ominous comparison with recent yield movements.\ufeff<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart1_07-02-2011.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1297095122986\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart2_07-02-2011.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1297092172052\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart3_07-02-2011.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1297092191501\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 680px;\" src=\"\/storage\/chart4_07-02-2011.gif?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1297092952476\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US capital goods manufacturers are increasingly bullish about their domestic sales prospects, according to a report in today&#8217;s Financial Times. This accords with the ISM&#8217;s December semi-annual investment intentions survey, indicating that manufacturing firms planned a 15% increase in capital spending in 2011, the largest since 1998 &ndash; see first chart. Labour demand typically follows [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5466,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3157\/revisions\/5466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}