Every payrolls decline was preceded by a fall in vacancies but several vacancies declines were followed by slowdowns in payrolls rather than outright weakness (e.g. 1966). <\/p>\n A sufficient condition for a payrolls recession was a fall of more than 15% in vacancies from their peak level in the latest 12 months – chart 2. This condition was met in February job openings numbers released last week. <\/p>\n Chart 2<\/strong><\/p>\n Historically, the 15% threshold was reached around the time that payrolls started to decline. In six of the 11 cases, payrolls had already peaked, although this was not always known at the time. <\/p>\n As an example, current data show a 1974 payrolls decline beginning in August, one month before the vacancies fall reached the 15% trigger. In real-time data, however, a payrolls peak was delayed until October.<\/p>\n —– It certainly seems ominous that there has been no policy response as yet and it doesn't look like there will be one for a quarter or two.<\/p>\n —– Policy steps taken are showing through and inflation will respond. The Saudi cut in oil volumes is a sign of weakness in demand, not an increase. Vacancies are flagging a slow down. Tightening credit conditions via the banking system. Commercial real-estate stress., feeding back into the banks. EPS will droop and market valuations respond. Have the monetary authorities gone too far and an undershirt to the downside on the cards?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" US February job openings were 17% below their March 2022 peak. Historically, a decline of this magnitude in vacancies – job openings or, for earlier years, help-wanted advertising – was always associated with a payrolls recession. Job openings numbers are available back to 2000. Regis Barnichon, now at the San Francisco Fed, constructed a proxy […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4657"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4657\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6966,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4657\/revisions\/6966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"\/storage\/140423c1.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1681464432666\")
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\nCOMMENT:
\nAUTHOR: David Cotton
\nEMAIL: mrwbartholomew@gmail.com
\nIP: 78.129.191.50
\nURL:
\nDATE: 04\/14\/2023 01:34:32 PM<\/p>\n
\nCOMMENT:
\nAUTHOR: Edward Xylem
\nEMAIL:
\nIP: 86.170.235.114
\nURL:
\nDATE: 04\/21\/2023 08:30:54 PM<\/p>\n