{"id":4689,"date":"2023-10-11T13:38:33","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T13:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4689"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:50:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:50:42","slug":"hard-landing-watch-us-employment-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4689","title":{"rendered":"Hard landing watch: US employment report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US September non-farm payrolls blew through the consensus expectation but the totality of evidence from the employment report suggests that the labour market continues to cool.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Including upward revisions to the prior two months, 455,000 jobs were added to the payrolls tally in September. However, this follows three weak months when the revisions-adjusted gain averaged 105,000 &ndash; see chart 1.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/111023c1.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1697018887717\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The alternative household survey employment measure &ndash; which counts people rather than jobs &ndash; grew at half the pace of payrolls in the three months to September &ndash; chart 2.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/111023c2.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1697018927253\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The relative strength of payrolls partly reflects a further rise in multiple job-holding, which is approaching its pre-pandemic peak, i.e. the relative boost may be ending &ndash; chart 3.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/111023c3.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1697018951565\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Stepping back, stronger growth of payrolls than GDP since end-2021 represents a catch-up following a big undershoot of trend during the pandemic &ndash; chart 4.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/111023c4.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1697018984811\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The catch-up appears complete, suggesting that payrolls will resume slower growth than GDP. The slope of the trend line implies a fall in payrolls if GDP growth declines below 1% annualised.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Temporary help jobs have led at prior peaks and troughs in payrolls and continued to decline in September &ndash; chart 5.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 5<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/111023c5.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1697019069376\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The unemployment rate, meanwhile, held at its higher August level, with the demographic breakdown showing a sharp jump among prime-age males &ndash; chart 6.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/111023c6.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1697019092709\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><em>Verdict: neutral \/ negative &ndash; headline surprise offset by weaker internals.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8211;<br \/>\nCOMMENT:<br \/>\nAUTHOR: David Cotton<br \/>\nEMAIL:<br \/>\nIP: 78.129.191.50<br \/>\nURL:<br \/>\nDATE: 10\/11\/2023 01:38:33 PM<\/p>\n<p>I am puzzled by falling y\/y Federal government current tax receipt combined with pretty reasonable y\/y all total non farm employee growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US September non-farm payrolls blew through the consensus expectation but the totality of evidence from the employment report suggests that the labour market continues to cool.&nbsp; Including upward revisions to the prior two months, 455,000 jobs were added to the payrolls tally in September. However, this follows three weak months when the revisions-adjusted gain averaged [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4689"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4689\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6998,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4689\/revisions\/6998"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}