{"id":4692,"date":"2023-10-31T07:38:29","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T07:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4692"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:50:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:50:42","slug":"hard-landing-watch-recent-data-wrap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4692","title":{"rendered":"Hard landing watch: recent data wrap"},"content":{"rendered":"

October flash PMI results for major developed economies imply little change in the global composite PMI new orders index (released 6 November). The current index level is 1 standard deviation below the long-run average. Weakening real narrow money momentum suggests a further decline through end-Q1 2024 – see previous post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What to make of the US GDP surge of 4.9% annualised in Q3? Likely temporary factors contributed (strong government spending, a rebound in stockbuilding). National accounts numbers have jarred with talk of economic strength since end-2021: GDP rose at an annualised rate of 1.2% over the six quarters to Q2 2023, with growth of the alternative income measure at just 0.2%. The Q3 GDP number may represent a statistical catch-up (an income estimate will be released next month). <\/p>\n

Retail sales \/ consumption strength is difficult to reconcile with the BEA’s near real-time data on card spending – see chart 1. Similarly, the GDP number appears out of line with PMIs and moderate Q3 growth in private aggregate hours worked (1.7% annualised).<\/p>\n

Chart 1<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese Q3 GDP growth also surprised to the upside but is easier to explain – as payback for a weak Q2. The two-quarter rate of change fell again – chart 2. A decline in six-month real narrow money momentum during Q3 suggests a further slowdown into early 2024. <\/p>\n

Chart 2<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Verdict: PMIs consistent with soft or hard landing; US GDP strength temporary \/ erratic; China losing momentum.<\/em><\/p>\n

—–
\nCOMMENT:
\nAUTHOR: Sandy
\nEMAIL:
\nIP: 79.97.146.67
\nURL:
\nDATE: 10\/31\/2023 07:38:29 AM<\/p>\n

Simon, it would be interesting to hear the monetarist response to the charge that monetarism 'failed' in the 80s. Bootle raised this yesterday in the Telegraph.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

October flash PMI results for major developed economies imply little change in the global composite PMI new orders index (released 6 November). The current index level is 1 standard deviation below the long-run average. Weakening real narrow money momentum suggests a further decline through end-Q1 2024 – see previous post. What to make of the US GDP […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4692"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4692\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7001,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4692\/revisions\/7001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}