{"id":4694,"date":"2023-11-02T12:17:23","date_gmt":"2023-11-02T12:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4694"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:50:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:50:42","slug":"global-real-money-momentum-at-new-low-on-bric-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4694","title":{"rendered":"Global real money momentum at new low on BRIC weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Additional monetary information confirms&nbsp;an earlier <a href=\"https:\/\/moneymovesmarkets.com\/journal\/2023\/10\/17\/more-negative-monetary-news.html\">estimate<\/a> here that global (i.e. G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum reached a new low in September, extending a decline from a local peak in December 2022 and suggesting further economic deceleration through spring 2024.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The September decline&nbsp;reflects&nbsp;a further fall in E7 momentum, which offset a small G7 recovery and reduced the E7-G7 gap to its narrowest since August 2022 &ndash; see chart 1.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/021123c1.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1698927870458\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>E7 and G7 gauges have moved in opposite directions since April. The E7 decline over May-August was driven by China, India and Brazil, with the September fall due to a plunge in Russia &ndash; chart 2. Russian weakness is likely to intensify given a recent surge in rates &ndash; chart 3.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/021123c2.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1698927893343\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/021123c3.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1698927915819\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The G7 recovery since April&nbsp;has been due to a minor reduction in the pace of nominal narrow money contraction coupled with a further slowdown in&nbsp;six-month consumer price inflation. The change of direction has occurred in most DM economies and momentum remains weaker in the Eurozone \/ UK than the US, Canada and Australia &ndash; chart 2. Still-extreme negative readings argue against much diminution of recessionary prospects.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Cross-country S&amp;P Global manufacturing PMI results are broadly consistent with&nbsp;the real narrow money momentum ranking &ndash; chart 4 (rank correlation coefficient of latest data points in charts 2 and 4 = 0.85). October PMI falls in India, China, Brazil and particularly Russia may extend given weaker monetary readings. A recent recovery in the US PMI, meanwhile, appears out of line with negative \/ little changed real money momentum and could reverse (as did the ISM manufacturing PMI last month).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/021123c4.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1698927939394\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Additional monetary information confirms&nbsp;an earlier estimate here that global (i.e. G7 plus E7) six-month real narrow money momentum reached a new low in September, extending a decline from a local peak in December 2022 and suggesting further economic deceleration through spring 2024.&nbsp; The September decline&nbsp;reflects&nbsp;a further fall in E7 momentum, which offset a small G7 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4694"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7003,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4694\/revisions\/7003"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}