{"id":4756,"date":"2024-12-04T13:54:16","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T13:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4756"},"modified":"2025-03-27T15:50:48","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T15:50:48","slug":"global-industrial-momentum-reviving-on-schedule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/?p=4756","title":{"rendered":"Global industrial momentum reviving on schedule"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions.<\/p>\n<p>The baseline scenario here has been that global industrial momentum &ndash; proxied by the manufacturing PMI new orders index &ndash; would bottom out in late 2024 and recover weakly into H1 2025. A manufacturing upturn was expected to be offset by loss of services momentum, with associated labour market weakness combining with favourable inflation news to support faster monetary policy easing.<\/p>\n<p>The manufacturing part of the story is on track. The forecast of a late 2024 PMI new orders low was based on a recovery in global six-month real narrow money momentum from a trough in September 2023, taking into account a recent average interval of about a year between turning points in the two series. The new orders index reached a 22-month low on schedule in September, recovering solidly in October \/ November &ndash; see chart 1.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/031224c1.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1733320492111\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The turnaround has been mirrored by an alternative indicator based on national business surveys, although this bottomed one month earlier in August and has recovered by slightly less &ndash; chart 2.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/031224c2.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1733320513055\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Chart 3 highlights the recent relationship between swings in six-month real narrow money momentum and directional changes in the alternative indicator. Real money momentum recovered between September 2023 and April 2024 but has since stalled at a weak level by historical standards, falling back in September \/ October.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chart 3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"full-image-block ssNonEditable\"><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/newstar.squarespace.com\/storage\/031224c3x.png?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1733327545411\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Assuming that the lead time remains at about a year, the suggestion is that a rise in the survey indicator \/ PMI new orders will level off in spring 2025, falling short of prior historical peaks.<\/p>\n<p>Forecast uncertainty is higher than normal because tariff threats are distorting behaviour. Accelerated stockbuilding could result in a stronger near-term pick-up and earlier peak with a subsequent normalisation &ndash; or worse if&nbsp;threats&nbsp;crystallise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>November results confirm a September low in global manufacturing PMI new orders, with money trends suggesting a further rise through spring 2025, subject to tariff distortions. The baseline scenario here has been that global industrial momentum &ndash; proxied by the manufacturing PMI new orders index &ndash; would bottom out in late 2024 and recover weakly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-money-moves-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4756"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7065,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4756\/revisions\/7065"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mmm.9dotdigital.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}